Archive for the ‘Global economy’ Category

The stock market crash: how it affects you

Friday, August 5th, 2011

The debt crisis has sent stock markets into turmoil – painful news for pension savers and investors, but the silver lining is falling mortgage rates

Panic is sweeping through stock exchanges across the world, with the FTSE 100, the Dow Jones and the Asian markets all taking a pounding. Here we look at what it all means to you, and what you can do about it.

Pensions

The closure of final salary-based pensions and the shift to ones dependent on the stockmarket means this week’s falls are more painful than ever for millions of workers. The FTSE 100 has fallen by a tenth in the space of just four weeks, and at the time of writing is tumbling further.

Worst hit are those approaching retirement: they won’t be able to make up the losses. What’s more, the turmoil in markets has sent annuity rates to rock-bottom lows. Annuity rates determine how much pension income you get in return for the money you saved during your lifetime, so this means pensioners retiring today will see a lower income.

Action More of the same: save more, work longer, retire later. Younger workers can ride the storm if markets recover. Older workers may feel compelled to shovel yet more cash into their workplace additional voluntary contribution (AVC) schemes. Someone retiring this week should speak to an independent annuity adviser urgently.

Savings

Last time around, when Northern Rock and then the Icelandic banks crashed, there was real panic about the security of savings. This time around the banks at the centre of the storm – Italian ones such as Unicredit and Intesa – are virtually invisible on the UK high street. If Spain moves centre stage then expect a rumble of concern about Santander, although it has passed stringent EU tests on its capital strength.

Action The UK compensation scheme has been improved since the last crisis, and now guarantees the first £85,000 of any individual’s savings (so a husband and wife or civil partner can protect as much as £170,000). The standard advice, if you have more than that amount, is to spread it around different accounts at providers which are not in the same banking group.

Mortgages

Here’s the silver lining. While the Italians and Spanish have seen money market interest rates shoot beyond 6%, the reverse is happening in the UK. Short-term money has, oddly enough, become cheaper, as markets now think the Bank of England won’t raise interest rates until well into 2012. In the past few days banks and building societies have been rushing out rate cuts on nearly all their deals, so if you’re coming off an expensive fixed-rate mortgage you’re one of the lucky ones.

The rate on a five-year fix has tumbled from about 4.5% to a record low of around 3.7% (see, for example, Yorkshire building society’s deal and others at moneyfacts.co.uk); two-year fixes have dropped below 2.7%; while tracker deals start at 2.89% at First Direct.

But the new banking crisis is probably bad news for first-time buyers, effectively shut out of the market by demands for huge deposits. This is unlikely to ease any time soon as banks do everything they can to preserve their capital.

Action If you’re on an existing tracker deal (which follows the Bank of England base rate) then you’re probably wise to do nothing and enjoy the ride. If you have a large mortgage, cannot afford a rate rise and think inflation is going to return, then jump into one of the five-year fixes.

Petrol, gas and electricity

Good news. The oil price has come back from a peak of about $125 a barrel during spring to about $108, with most of that fall in the past few days. This morning it was up a bit, but if the world economy slows down or even goes into a double-dip recession expect further falls.

Bad news. E.ON this morning raised its prices by 18.1% for gas and 11.4% for electricity. However, if the wholesale price of gas and electricity tracks the price of oil, as it tends to do, maybe households will see an easing off in further price rises. But the utility companies have a long history of failing to pass on price falls in the wholesale market, so don’t expect price cuts in the short term.

Action It’s probably not worth switching gas or electricity provider right now – hang around for better deals in a month or two’s time.

Investments

Bad luck if your fund took a bet on European banks recovering. Ones that can play markets going down (the hedge funds and Ucits III funds) may in some cases have benefited. This morning, financial advisers were telling clients that the important thing is diversification, although one of the features of the 2008-09 market decline is that all asset classes – equities, bonds, property – went down, so diversification didn’t pay off much.

The big play of the past few years – mining and commodity stocks fuelled by voracious demand from China and other emerging markets – will look exposed if global growth slows.

But gold continues to shine. Yesterday it went up another $10 to $1,679 an ounce, and while markets remain in panic, is likely to advance further.

Action If I knew the answer to this one …


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Property values in Asia soar while price rises in Europe lag behind

Tuesday, March 29th, 2011

Knight Frank global house price index shows prices across the world last year recovered by 2.8% after a 3.8% drop in 2009

The global housing sector is operating a two-speed market as prices of western properties stagnate while the value of homes in emerging economies continues to power ahead.

House prices across the world staged a modest recovery last year, rising by 2.8% after a 3.8% decline in 2009, according to the latest Knight Frank global house price index. The global housing market benefited as strong price growth in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East offset stagnation in Europe and the US.

Hong Kong saw the biggest increases, with house prices jumping more than 20% last year, while Ireland record the biggest decline, of nearly 11%, according to Knight Frank.

The UK came about two-thirds of the way down the global ranking, with prices rising 0.7% last year, compared to 3% growth in Germany, a 4.1% decline in the US and a 4.1% rise in Canada.

Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank, said: “There are two stories here. The headline figure confirms relatively benign conditions but this hides big regional and country level differences.

This annual data hides the fact that a growing number of countries are seeing negative quarterly price movements,” Bailey adds.

The percentage of countries in Knight Frank’s 49-country index recording quarterly price declines rose from 31% to 41% in the second half of 2010.

Bailey warned that parts of Asia, such as areas in Mumbai and along the eastern seaboard in China, were at risk of overheating after prices doubled in 18 months.

North America was flat – helped by price increases in Canada – while Europe saw a 1.4% increase after a 7.7% decline in 2009.

“This year the outlook for the US and Europe is pretty slow. Growth in the US is likely to stick around zero, while in Europe it could dip to zero or even be negative,” Bailey said.

“It looks increasingly likely that Asian markets will escape a crash in prices, but in many of the previously ‘hot markets’ price falls later this year seem a realistic assumption,” he added.

House price growth by region in 2010

Asia-Pacific: 7.5%

Middle East: 5.3%

South America: 3.8%

Europe: 1.4%

North America: 0%

Price growth by country

:Hong Kong: +20.1%

Latvia: +16.9%

Israel: +16.2%

China: +15.3%

Singapore: +14.0%

Austria: 9.9%

France: 9.5%

India: 8.9%

Poland: 8.1%

Denmark: 7.8%

Taiwan: 7.4%

Sweden: 5.2%

Germany: 3.0%

Turkey: 2.6%

South Africa: 0.9%

Russia: 0.9%

Iceland: -1.4%

Italy: -1.4%

Spain: -3.5%

Portugal: -4.0%

Greece: -6.0%

Dubai: -6.1%

Ireland: -10.8%

Source: Knight Frank Global House Price Index


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Budget 2011: George Osborne plans boost for homebuyers and drivers

Wednesday, March 23rd, 2011

Chancellor to court medium earners in ‘steady as she goes’ budget despite rise in inflation and borrowing

George Osborne has told the cabinet his budget will set out the government’s plans to reform and rebalance the economy and help struggling families with the cost of living.

The chancellor will seek to appeal to Britain’s “squeezed middle” when he announces help for first-time buyers, motorists and 25 million income tax payers in a budget designed to tighten the Treasury’s grip on public spending.

Osborne briefed senior ministers including the prime minister, David Cameron, on the contents of his second budget at an 8am cabinet meeting at 10 Downing Street

Despite disappointing news for the public finances, the chancellor is expected to say that he has scope to raise the income tax personal allowance by £600 next year, fund a £250m shared equity scheme for new homes and defer the above-inflation increase in petrol duty due next month.

But he will balance tax giveaways with tax-raising measures, a crackdown on tax avoidance and “special measures” for overspending Whitehall departments in what sources insisted would be a “steady as she goes” package.

Cameron’s official spokesman told reporters: “The chancellor took the cabinet through the budget and set out the main aims … which are to set out our plans for reforming and rebalancing the nation’s economy and steps to help families with the cost of living.”

Osborne will outline a range of measures including a shake-up of planning laws, deregulation of employment laws affecting small businesses, and long-awaited plans for a green investment bank as the coalition seeks to shift the focus of the economy from deficit reduction to boosting growth.

The chancellor will admit that the UK’s growth prospects for 2011 have worsened since the autumn, with the independent Office for Budget Responsibility likely to pencil in an increase of around 1.8% in gross domestic product this year against the 2.1% it forecast in November.

But Osborne will signal his determination not to let the government’s deficit reduction plans slip, with controls designed to intensify pressure on ministers to rein in spending.

Departments failing to manage their budgets properly will be placed in special measures – akin to the Ofsted rating given to a failing school – with tough penalties.

These could include fines for overspending or being forced to seek Treasury authorisation for larger spending decisions.

City hopes that public borrowing for 2010-11 would come in £10bn below the £148bn forecast were dented by news that the deficit in February topped £10bn – the highest for the month since modern records began in 1993.

Meanwhile, inflation according to the consumer price index rose from 4% to a 28-month high of 4.4% last month, pushing up government spending on state benefits.

Dearer food, fuel and clothing were the main factors behind last month’s jump in inflation, which is now more than double the government’s 2% target.

The increase in the CPI measure of inflation was matched by a rise in the alternative yardstick of the cost of living, the retail prices index, which rose from 5.1% to 5.5% last month, its highest for 20 years.

In a move that will please the Liberal Democrat wing of the coalition, Osborne will say that the income tax personal allowance – due to go up to £7,475 next month – will be raised by more than inflation from next year.

The increase of around £600 – which comes on top of the £1,000 rise next month – will be worth an average of £45 a year for taxpayers earning up to £115,000 a year.

The 550,000 taxpayers who earn more than £115,000 will lose £45 a year because they no longer have a personal allowance.

Osborne will announce a joint scheme with the construction industry to help some of the potential first-time buyers currently frozen out of the housing market.

First-time buyers with a household income of less than £60,000 a year who can put down a 5% deposit on a new home will be eligible for an equity loan worth up to 20% of the value of the property jointly funded by the government and housebuilders.

The loan will be interest-free for five years, and will only be repayable when the house is sold.

With most first-time buyers only able to secure mortgages worth 75% of a property’s value, Osborne is expected to say his scheme will give some young people the chance to meet the exacting loan standards demanded by lenders in the wake of the financial crisis, lead to the building of 10,000 new homes and protect 40,000 jobs in the construction industry.

The year-long cabinet battle over Britain’s ability to invest in the next generation of green infrastructure will be resolved when a green investment bank is established with access to up to £3bn of funds, and an ability to borrow from April 2015.

Green groups will be disappointed about the deferral of borrowing powers but pleased at the higher than expected interim funding.

The battle over the bank was resolved on Sunday, and the outcome reflects a wider political struggle to ensure plans in the budget to ease pressure on the squeezed middle, including freezing planned fuel duty rises, do not strip the coalition of its green credentials.

Ministers admit the deferral of the bank’s borrowing powers to 2015-16 reflects Treasury determination to ensure net debt as a percentage of GDP is falling by 2015-16.

But they also argue that decisions on the next big wave of green investment projects, including offshore wind farms, do not need to be made until after 2015.

In a negotiating success for Chris Huhne, the energy secretary, the bank will be given access to £1bn of funds from 2012-13, as opposed to the earlier plan to wait until 2013-14.

The bank will also be given access, from 2012-13, to £775m from the asset sales from HS1, the superfast rail track between London and the Channel tunnel.

In addition, the bank will have access to £1bn from the sales from 2013-14 from Urenco, the company that makes enriched uranium from nuclear power. The government owns one-third of Urenco jointly with the Dutch government and German energy companies RWE and E.On.

The Treasury has given a guarantee that if the income from the sale of Urenco is not forthcoming, the green bank will have access to other funds.


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