Archive for the ‘Recession’ Category

Britain’s shameful generation gap

Friday, August 19th, 2011

Fortunate fortysomethings can handle the recession; the price is being paid by people in their twenties

Are you in your twenties? Then you’re paying a colossally high price so that people in my age bracket – 40-plus – can enjoy a rather pleasant recession, thank you very much.

If you were born between 1980 and 1990, bad luck. You probably can’t find a job, as graduate unemployment heads to 20%, and school leaver joblessness approaches 50%. If you do land a job, your wages won’t get you far. Your train fare to work is going up 8%. Need somewhere to live? Rents are hitting one new record high after the next, up 7% in London over the past year. Any spare cash? Save it for the gas bill, up another 15%.

How about buying your own place? Forget it. As Britain’s biggest firm of valuation surveyors revealed this week, mortgage approvals for those on low incomes are becoming virtually impossible to obtain. The idea is that once you’ve been clobbered by stupid rents, train fares and bills, you’re supposed to save up for a 30% deposit if you are going to qualify for a loan. Oh, and pay off a £20,000 debt (soon to be £60,000) from university. Fat chance.

Now let’s look at it from the standpoint of someone in his forties. The generation who didn’t pay to go to university. Who were able to buy a home at bargain-basement prices in the mid-1990s. Who have, for the most part, kept their jobs through the recession. And who now are basking in ultra-low interest rates on their tracker mortgages. For many, it’s been the same as a £500 a month pay rise. Even better, those rates are going to stay low. Thank you, Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve for telling us that rates in the US will stay at virtually zero through to mid 2013. The Bank of England will follow suit. It’s why mortgage rates this week hit a record low. But even those record-low five-year fixes won’t tempt me, not when I and many others can joyfully carry on with our juicy sub-2% tracker deals.

The truth is that if you’ve kept your job and have a tracker mortgage, this recession has barely touched the sides. It was like this in the 1930s, too. Yes, there was Jarrow, but if you kept your job, many people never had it so good.

The generation in retirement today don’t quite see it that way, complaining about paltry returns on savings, steep council taxes and soaring household bills. But at least many of them are still on final-salary pensions. The idea that today’s young will retire on a guaranteed two-thirds salary is fanciful in the extreme.

What do we do about this lost generation? Nothing, it seems is the answer. The chancellor, George Osborne, thinks that lopping the 50% tax rate for the rich is the way forward, his ideal society one of the have-yachts and the have-nots. Meanwhile, the likes of my generation and income are snapping up house alarms and window bars as our cities become ever more fearful places.

I would be the last person to condone the hateful criminals responsible for the mindless destruction I witnessed in my part of south-east London. But if we step back a few paces, and consider how we are abandoning that far larger, law-abiding, younger generation, we should be ashamed of ourselves.


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The stock market crash: how it affects you

Friday, August 5th, 2011

The debt crisis has sent stock markets into turmoil – painful news for pension savers and investors, but the silver lining is falling mortgage rates

Panic is sweeping through stock exchanges across the world, with the FTSE 100, the Dow Jones and the Asian markets all taking a pounding. Here we look at what it all means to you, and what you can do about it.

Pensions

The closure of final salary-based pensions and the shift to ones dependent on the stockmarket means this week’s falls are more painful than ever for millions of workers. The FTSE 100 has fallen by a tenth in the space of just four weeks, and at the time of writing is tumbling further.

Worst hit are those approaching retirement: they won’t be able to make up the losses. What’s more, the turmoil in markets has sent annuity rates to rock-bottom lows. Annuity rates determine how much pension income you get in return for the money you saved during your lifetime, so this means pensioners retiring today will see a lower income.

Action More of the same: save more, work longer, retire later. Younger workers can ride the storm if markets recover. Older workers may feel compelled to shovel yet more cash into their workplace additional voluntary contribution (AVC) schemes. Someone retiring this week should speak to an independent annuity adviser urgently.

Savings

Last time around, when Northern Rock and then the Icelandic banks crashed, there was real panic about the security of savings. This time around the banks at the centre of the storm – Italian ones such as Unicredit and Intesa – are virtually invisible on the UK high street. If Spain moves centre stage then expect a rumble of concern about Santander, although it has passed stringent EU tests on its capital strength.

Action The UK compensation scheme has been improved since the last crisis, and now guarantees the first £85,000 of any individual’s savings (so a husband and wife or civil partner can protect as much as £170,000). The standard advice, if you have more than that amount, is to spread it around different accounts at providers which are not in the same banking group.

Mortgages

Here’s the silver lining. While the Italians and Spanish have seen money market interest rates shoot beyond 6%, the reverse is happening in the UK. Short-term money has, oddly enough, become cheaper, as markets now think the Bank of England won’t raise interest rates until well into 2012. In the past few days banks and building societies have been rushing out rate cuts on nearly all their deals, so if you’re coming off an expensive fixed-rate mortgage you’re one of the lucky ones.

The rate on a five-year fix has tumbled from about 4.5% to a record low of around 3.7% (see, for example, Yorkshire building society’s deal and others at moneyfacts.co.uk); two-year fixes have dropped below 2.7%; while tracker deals start at 2.89% at First Direct.

But the new banking crisis is probably bad news for first-time buyers, effectively shut out of the market by demands for huge deposits. This is unlikely to ease any time soon as banks do everything they can to preserve their capital.

Action If you’re on an existing tracker deal (which follows the Bank of England base rate) then you’re probably wise to do nothing and enjoy the ride. If you have a large mortgage, cannot afford a rate rise and think inflation is going to return, then jump into one of the five-year fixes.

Petrol, gas and electricity

Good news. The oil price has come back from a peak of about $125 a barrel during spring to about $108, with most of that fall in the past few days. This morning it was up a bit, but if the world economy slows down or even goes into a double-dip recession expect further falls.

Bad news. E.ON this morning raised its prices by 18.1% for gas and 11.4% for electricity. However, if the wholesale price of gas and electricity tracks the price of oil, as it tends to do, maybe households will see an easing off in further price rises. But the utility companies have a long history of failing to pass on price falls in the wholesale market, so don’t expect price cuts in the short term.

Action It’s probably not worth switching gas or electricity provider right now – hang around for better deals in a month or two’s time.

Investments

Bad luck if your fund took a bet on European banks recovering. Ones that can play markets going down (the hedge funds and Ucits III funds) may in some cases have benefited. This morning, financial advisers were telling clients that the important thing is diversification, although one of the features of the 2008-09 market decline is that all asset classes – equities, bonds, property – went down, so diversification didn’t pay off much.

The big play of the past few years – mining and commodity stocks fuelled by voracious demand from China and other emerging markets – will look exposed if global growth slows.

But gold continues to shine. Yesterday it went up another $10 to $1,679 an ounce, and while markets remain in panic, is likely to advance further.

Action If I knew the answer to this one …


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